August CPI: A Hawkish Surprise with Mixed Details
A trading-desk read of August CPI: the monthly core miss strengthens the hike argument, while concentrated price increases and contained rent readings temper the bearish case.
THE COMPLETE NOTEBOOK
All articles.
12 field notes and counting.
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Morning Market Brief: CPI, Oracle & the 5% Yield Test
September 11’s trading brief: hot monthly core CPI, recovering futures, Oracle and Adobe earnings, the diesel squeeze, and the catalysts ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.
Morning Market Brief: Oil, Inflation & the AI Divide
September 10’s morning brief: mixed PPI, an ECB hike, disrupted oil shipping, strong TSMC revenue and the DeepSeek efficiency debate.
Morning Market Brief: Oil, Higher Yields & a Defensive Tape
September 9’s trading brief: energy and rate pressure, Apple’s event, Taiwan developments, and the latest SPY, SPX, VIX, USO and AAPL tape assessments.
Morning Market Brief: Oil, Rates & SPY’s 770 Pivot
September 8’s premarket report: energy disruption, rising yields, Taiwan tensions, company catalysts, and the historical SPY options map around 770.
USO Options Tape: Late 2028 Put Sweep Dominates a Defensive Session
USO closed higher, but a late deep-in-the-money January 2028 put sweep and persistent 135–140 call selling left the options tape decisively defensive.
VIX Options Tape: September Hedge Demand Against Longer-Dated Call Supply
VIX options flow showed concentrated September upside demand offset by substantial October-to-January call supply, pointing to a defined hedge window rather than broad panic.
Barrick Mining (B) Options Tape: Defensive Flow Beneath a Deep-ITM Call Transfer Program
Barrick Mining Corporation’s options tape showed defensive near-term flow beneath a massive deep-in-the-money call-transfer and stock-equivalent restructuring program.
USO Options Tape: Constructive but Capped, Package-Heavy Flow
USO’s options tape showed put-selling-led constructive flow, heavy spread activity, nearer-strike call selling, and retained downside hedging.
AAPL Options Tape: Bullish Accumulation with Afternoon Hedging
AAPL’s options tape showed broad call buying and near-term put selling, followed by afternoon hedging after the morning rally.
NVDA Options Tape: Defensive Flow and Late Dip-Buying
NVDA's options tape showed broad defensive flow and long-dated call selling, followed by structured dip-buying near the session low.
Opening bell: what this notebook is for
A short statement of intent—and the operating rule behind every post.
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